Site Network: Debate This, Ole Miss. | the j-department | debate.olemiss.edu | mblog | mcast | the university of mississippi

An interesting article on motherjones.com called "Should Obama Supporters Worry?" addresses several factors that can change numbers in tomorrow's election. Among them is the "Bradley effect," which suggests voters claim to vote for an African-American politician, but latent racist tendencies surface in the voting booth resulting in lower numbers. Other points were that the late-deciders tend to stray from Obama, the GOP is unleashing a huge "get out the vote," of GOTV campaign, and the polls are supposedly tightening.

However, it also discussed reasons why Obama supporters need not worry. First, the issue of pollsters sometimes not including cellular phone lines in the samples, which may boost numbers for Obama because a large number of younger voters tend to not have landlines. Also the "make history" effect, which I don't necessarily see as a strong reason because McCain-Palin could make history with the first woman vice president. The last reason mentioned in the article seems to pretty strong. It mentions the website www.270towin.com, which allows the user to see an interactive electoral college map.

"Give Obama all the Kerry states — which are all states Obama is leading comfortably in, including Pennsylvania. Don't give him Ohio, Florida, Virginia, or Iowa, all states he could win on Tuesday. Now just add the three western swing states — Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado — where he holds leads of seven or more points. Presto, election over. Obama gets 271 electoral votes, one more than he needs to win."

Now here's an interesting question...is there any chance Mississippi changes from red to blue? Some say it would be a cold day in hell, but others believe that the Democrats might show up in large numbers. Only time will tell...

0 comments:

Post a Comment